NFL Conference Championship DFS: GPP Tips
In what has been the most sobering article I have completed research for, I am sad to say that this will be the last NFL DFS article I will write this season, and with only two games left on the schedule, there’s no reason to hold anything back. As mentioned in earlier articles, I enjoy playing smaller slates, and prefer to stick to GPPs on DraftKings. I’ve achieved great success in cash games on FanDuel, but don’t care to have my GPP lineups influenced by kickers. It’s simply a matter of preference, as I fancy the flex spot and abundance of options on DK. With only two games, I’m going to make this as simple as possible, while being as transparent as possible about my strategy, which by no means is an exact science, but has paid off greatly for me this season when playing two game slates.
We are talking GPPs here, so any four of these QBs are in play. If I were going to use all four, I would build four lineups with each QB for a total of 16 lineups. The big payout on DK is $100,000 to first, so I’m going to do my best to take shots, cover as many angles as possible and play a toned down sports related Power Ball for $48. This week I’m putting all my QB eggs in two baskets, building eight lineups with each QB.
Tom Brady $7400
Unfortunately, Tom Brady is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, but I love his upside with both Gronk and Edelman in the line up. Brady accounted for three touchdowns last week against a stingy Chiefs defense, and balled out in his last game against Denver with three touchdowns and 280 yards without Edelman and no Gronk in the late stages of the fourth quarter.
Carson Palmer $6800
Carson Palmer was gripping a little last game, and came out tight, but once he got the two interceptions out of the way, he posted a 349/3 line at home against the Packers. It should be a bit tougher for the Cardinals on Sunday on what could be a suspicious field. The Panthers have given up over 300 yards passing in each of the last three games to lesser QBs than Palmer, and gave up four touchdowns through the air to Eli Manning before that. Palmer has the best opportunity to be the top QB this week, given game flow, weapons, and matchup.
We need to sneak in two RBs this week and possibly a third in the flex. You already know who the best ones are and who has the most upside, so in fear of overloading you with the obvious, I want to encourage you to keep an open mind, because you simply aren’t going to be able to afford two high upside RBs on every roster. Players like James White or Ronnie Hillman who have big play potential and can catch balls out of the backfield must be considered. It will hurt, but don’t be afraid to peel off the Band-Aid quickly with super sleepers like Andre Ellington, Brandon Bolden, Mike Tolbert and Steven Jackson, because one of these dirt cheap options is bound to crush value, so playing multiple lines to get one in per lineup is a wise strategy if you’re looking to cash.
Jonathan Stewart $5900
Jonathan Stewart is clearly on my radar, sore feet and all. Stewart had over 100 yards last week against Seattle with multiple touchdowns and a cool 19 carries. Arizona gave up 6.1 yards per carry last week against Green Bay, so the daily fantasy stars should align for Stewart in this one.
C.J. Anderson $4400
Anderson has averaged 13/66/1 in his last three games with 15 carries in each of his last two. He torched the Patriots earlier this year for 113 yards and two touchdowns, and New England gave up 4.2 yards on the ground last week to the Chiefs. Again there’s not much to work with this week, and I’m tightening up my sample sizes because playoff games are played a little more tightly than regular season games. Anderson has the potential to be the offensive star for the Broncos win or lose.
What about David Johnson?
At $6500 Johnson is the most expensive RB on the board and has the longest odds to return value. Carolina has given up 135 receptions to running backs on the season, but Johnson is coming off a bad game where he averaged a malnourished 2.3 yards per carry, and though the Panthers gave up 5.1 yards per carry to the Seahawks, Johnson is a different style of back than Marshawn Lynch. Since Carson Palmer has the mobility of a pylon, the Panthers won’t have to worry about getting beat on the ground by the QB. You’ll need to work him in, but if you also need to shave some dollars, he should be one of the first one to go.
Like the running back position, you will have to come to grips with rostering players like Brandon LaFell, Ted Ginn Jr., and John Brown, who isn’t too bad. You’ll have to grin and bear it with guys like Keshawn Martin, but guys like Devin Funchess, Corey Brown and Andre Caldwell should not be overlooked. Don’t scoff too hard, as one of these obscure wide receivers is going to win someone a lot of money, and DraftPros is here to increase your chances that that someone is YOU!!
Larry Fitzgerald $6900
I wish we could get fantasy points for down field blocking and being an all around good guy, but since I can’t, I had to settle for an 8/176/1 line last week. Fitz will live in the slot far away from Josh Norman and Fitz is the best big play receiver on any of the four teams. Michael Floyd needs to be part of the conversation as well. If you want to go with a Cardinals heavy GPP entry, don’t hesitate to roster both with Palmer.
Julian Edelman $7500
He’s back as evidenced by his ten catch performance last week, which truly was an amazing performance. PPR is a killer with Edelman again this week, so you’ll have to be intentional and creative about getting him in your lineup.
Coin Flip Time
Pick your poison with Demaryius Thomas ($7000) and Emmanuel Sanders ($6300). I wouldn’t totally ignore them, but they won’t find their way on to many of my GPP line ups. Neither are going to catch the deep ball, and although both have breakaway capabilities, neither will require double coverage like Gronk would, meaning neither will have as much space as Edelman will have. New England’s linebackers can run with both WRs, so it should be tough treading.
It’s Gronk and Olsen here folks, but there is one teeny tiny issue. Gronk is more expensive than any other WR on the board, and Olsen is the third most expensive pass catcher on the board. This is going to make roster construction a nightmare for you and rostering both a near impossibility. I wouldn’t think of rolling with any other TE this week, though both Scott Chandler and Owen Daniels make for great ninja picks in the flex positions.
For more on this or any other sport DraftPros covers you can follow us on Twitter @DraftPros or you can hit me up @boxscoreprophet. Creativity is the name of the game this week folks, so light it up, and keep us posted on your success.